Deal or No Deal Expected Value Calculator

Cases to open:

Results

Current Statistics

Current fair offer:$0.00
Volatility:0.00%

Next Round Statistics

Best case fair offer:
Worst case fair offer:

Instructions

• Click or click and drag to select/deselect multiple cases to represent the desired board state

• Enter the number of cases to be opened in the next round

• Click Calculate to see statistics and predictions

Use the Load Special Board button to set the case values to load in a special board like Million Dollar Madness or Double Deal or type the desired numerical amount into the desired spot on the board

Explanation

The fair offer is calculated by summing up the remaining case dollar amounts and then dividing the total by the number of cases remaining. In the beginning stages of the game, the banker's offer is usually vastly below the board mean as a way to entice contestants to keep playing. As cases are eliminated, and the mean becomes more volatile, the banker's should get closer to the true board mean.


Volatility is calculated by first calculating the all possible combinations of cases that can be opened next round based on the current board state and the number of cases that need to be opened. Then, the list of generated combinations is used to generate all possible future board states and the coefficient of variation is computed to determine whether your next case openings are likely to dramatically change the next offer


The next round statistics calculate what your next fair offer would be if either the best case scenario(content opens the lowest case(s)) or the worst case scenario(contestant opens the highest case(s) ) which gives the range for what the next round fair offer should fall between.